Nate silver fivethirtyeight original poster 515 points 4 years ago this is another question that i feel should have an awesome answer too, but i probably wont. Democracys whipping boys britains election is the latest occasion. In defense of nate silver, election pollsters, and. Mar 10, 2017 nate silver, editorandchief of, a polling analysis and prediction website, had a rough election night, as his final odds favoring a hillary clinton victory were wrecked by reality. Nate silver adjusted conservatively for this and still concluded that the election outcome was tipped in those very close states by this factor alone the timing made the difference.
Nate silver talks about the presidential election on wednesday. Nate silvers book the signal and the noise, on the uses of statistical methods for prediction, is one of my favourite books of recent years and is. So, hot on the heels of my correctly predicting the outcome of the scottish referendum, and the eu elections. Have nate silvers election predictions from delegates to. They offer key lessons about how to be smart with big data. In a victory speech, estes mocked the pundits and media who ever believed that the seat wasnt going to be his. But one of the most accurate ways to predict the results of the election is statistician nate silver s site. Theres a similar set of scenarios in play for the u. How alabamas election could reshape washingtons policy.
The day the 2017 uk general election was called, i was in. In the signal and the noise, the new york times political forecaster nate silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 us election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. But the 2017 campaign is surely the most bewildering ever. Us polling expert nate silver wrote that this event was.
Pundit eats his own book on tv after falsely predicting uk. He was right about the outcome of the 2008 american presidential election in 49 of the 50 states, making a. One of the things he does well is give statistical uncertainties on his predictions. The companys latest figures for the times suggest the conservatives may win just 310 seats. No matter who wins the presidential election, nate silver was. The us pollster nate silver has written a handy guide on his blog, giving seven different. I, the uks own nate silver using little more than reading, wishful thinking and guesswork am going to tell you whats going to happen over the next 36 hours. Polls were rebounding after comey retracted by saying that the emails were no longer under investigation, but it did not have enough time to sink in. In the uk, nate silver finally found an election he couldn. How nate silver failed to predict trump vanity fair. Apr 27, 2015 nate silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the results in every state in the 2012 us election, has suggested there could be an incredibly messy outcome to the uk general election. No matter who wins the presidential election, nate silver.
Yet, silver was relatively less wrong about the presidential election results than most other outlets including his former colleagues at the new york times and mocking liberal ryan grim at the. Nate silver left, founder and editorinchief of, believes that conventional wisdom not polls failed to predict the results of the 2016 presidential election. May 10, 2016 one of the things he does well is give statistical uncertainties on his predictions. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and. In his preelection forecast, he forecast 278 seats for conservatives and 267 for labour. Theres a new king of the presidential election data mountain.
Jul 25, 2016 nate silver and michael moore have some dire warnings for those who think americans are too smart to elect an idiot. Apr 18, 20 in the signal and the noise, the new york times political forecaster nate silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 us election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. Looks like nate silvers predictions were 100% accurate 50 for 50 states as of polls right now 11. Therefore he can tell you the most likely thing to happen his prediction and give you the odds that something different will happen, something pollsters tend to. Nate silvers election prediction says hillary clinton will win by a landslide. Georgetown university awarded silver a degree of doctor of. One was a couple of weeks ago on male suicide and the other was this tuesdays episode about nate silver attempting to predict the outcome of the forthcoming general election here in the uk. What is your prediction for the uk general election 2017.
Nate silver may be the face of the electoral statistical model, but there are others, too. Preelection polls have been incredibly volatile, though nate silver thinks mr. The pollwhisperer shared a map, based on current polling, of a general election held today between hillary clinton and donald trump andspoiler. In the uk, nate silver finally found an election he couldnt. Nate silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 us election. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. I consider this the most likely outcome but also my least favorite one. The signal and the noise nate silver in conversation wonkhe. Prediction is a really important tool, its not a game nate silver made a name for himself with his uncannily accurate predictions of baseball scores and us election results.
Analytics guru nate silver shares world series prediction. For those few not in the know, wonkfest closing speaker nate silver is a genuine wonk icon. May 31, 2017 yougov has outlined how its reached its shock prediction of a hung parliament at the general election. His book, the signal and the noise, details a journey through bayesian statistics that has revolutionised baseball and thrown a curve ball at political commentary and electoral prediction. Nate silver sits on the stairs with his laptop computer at a hotel in chicago on friday, nov. Predicting the outcome of elections is an inherently chancy. Nate silver took political polls and hunches, which were far less accurate, and came up with something significantly better. Apr 23, 2017 nate silver adjusted conservatively for this and still concluded that the election outcome was tipped in those very close states by this factor alone the timing made the difference. Nate silver fared terribly in thursdays uk election. Innovate 4 lessons from nate silvers election predictions why do big election predictions matter. Nov 07, 2012 looks like nate silver s predictions were 100% accurate 50 for 50 states as of polls right now 11. Nate silvers predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between hillary clinton and donald trump. Nate silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008.
The washington post featured silver in its 14th annual election prediction contest this year, and hell be reporting on tuesday nights results with dan rather on hdnet. Nate silvers election prediction says hillary clinton will. If you look at public opinion, people werent actually all that confident in clintons chances. Nate silver, political statistician, predicts a blue wave of democratic takeover as the public responds to the attempted murder of obamacare. Only criticism from a uk reader is the strong lean early on to sports and. Jun 27, 20 columnist, statistician, and prognosticator nate silver, whose website is the only one to have correctly predicted the outcomes of the 2012 and 2008 elections, shares his. The governing conservative party remained the largest single party in the house of commons but unexpectedly lost its small overall majority, resulting in the formation of a minority government with a confidenceandsupply arrangement with the democratic unionist. Similarly to the 2016 presidential election in the united states, a snap election in the united kingdom this week took the world by surprise. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insiders.
Among the modelmakers, nate silver, an american journalist, was a. He famously predicted fortynine of fifty states in the 2008 us election and maintains detailed predictive. Nate silver is a statistician and political forecaster at the new york times who became a national sensation in the united states when his predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most mainstream polls. How accurate were nate silvers predictions for the 2012. He has no problem with the hypocrisy of attacking nate silver over some supposed weaknesses in his election prediction model, but does not seem to care about the inaccuracies of his own public predictions. He was right about the outcome of the 2008 american presidential election in 49 of the 50 states, making a name for himself as a statistician of note. Nate silver and michael moore have some dire warnings for those who think americans are too smart to elect an idiot. Fivethirtyeights forecast for the north carolina senate race between richard burr and deborah ross. Illustration, of tiny red labour balloon struggling intop the sky, by eva bee.
However, i think therell be a massive shakeup on a seat by seat basis. Yougovs poll predicting a hung parliament is certainly brave. May 08, 2015 nate silver is famous in the us for being right. But one of the most accurate ways to predict the results of the election is statistician nate silvers site. Nate silvers electoral map prediction is the stuff of. He is a contributor to the new york times magazine and has appeared as a commentator on cnn and msnbc.
Pre election polls have been incredibly volatile, though nate silver thinks mr. No matter who wins the presidential election, nate silver was right. Theyd also win senate races next year in texas, utah and mississippi plus arizona and nevada. Silvers book, the signal and the noise, was published in september 2012. He has spoken at ted and sxsw, and was named one of times. Yougov has outlined how its reached its shock prediction of a hung parliament at the general election. The signal and the noise nate silver in conversation. I tend to think a lot in terms of sports and the womens world cup happened this year. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight proves its worth with another close election prediction by kate allen science and technology reporter wed. The polls got 2015 and brexit wrong, and its unclear if the pollsters have sufficiently cleaned up their act since then, even if they have uk polls are errorprone. Nate silvers election prediction says hillary clinton. In his efforts to call the uks general election in 2010, he predicted around 100 seats for the lib dems.
Before the voting began to potentially elect a new. Nate silver, editorandchief of, a polling analysis and prediction website, had a rough election night, as his final odds favoring a hillary clinton victory were wrecked by reality. In his pre election forecast, he forecast 278 seats for conservatives and 267 for labour. I have just finished reading the signal and the noise. Nov 08, 2016 no matter who wins the presidential election, nate silver was right. Nate silver explains how everyone got trump wrong vanity. Nate silvers fivethirtyeight proves its worth with. His forecasts of the 2008 united states presidential primary elections drew a lot. Evanston analytics guru and political prognosticator nate silver touched upon predictions related to the election, of course, the cubs and monster hurricane matthew that was headed toward the florida coast as he addressed a soldout crowd of approximately 1,000 people at northwesterns pick staiger concert hall on thursday, oct.
Poll conducted entirely after london terror attack on june 3. Oct 19, 2016 nate silver s election prediction says hillary clinton will win by a landslide. Given that my final prediction has them on 208, theres no plan to cover. Nate silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the results in every state in the 2012 us election, has suggested there could be an incredibly messy outcome to the uk general election. Silver, a statistician by trade, gained a sterling reputation in the 2008 and 2012 election cycles by predicting the exact outcome of the presidential elections, nailing every states electoral. Shortly after midnight there, he was forecasting 272. Nate silvers predictions for the 2016 election youtube.
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